FUTURES SHOCK I love talk radio. Whenever I am on the road, I listen to whatever station that has some interesting program on the air. There is so much to learn. Yes, I even listen to Rush Limbaugh. Some might say that Rush is just a windbag, egomaniac who loves to strut his stuff. Some of that may be true, and yet, he does present an alternative to the status quo. A few weeks ago while riding to Pittsburgh, I tuned into an interesting discussion about futures trading. I won't name the company because this is not an advertisement for anybody. Anyway, the host and guest were discussing the purchasing of heating oil futures. The guest believed the value of heating oil futures would increase by more than 40 cents per gallon in the next three months. He cited a 14 year study to prove it. The guest described the concept of futures trading and how there was beaucoup money to be made if a person who has some spare cash lying around wants to invest it. Here's how it works. The investor calls the company and buys so many shares of futures stock. In this case, the investor buys 10 shares of heating oil futures at $1000 a share for a total investment of $10,000 plus $295 per share for administration services or $11,400 total investment. If the current value per gallon of heating oil is .49 cents, and it increases to say .50 in the next month, the value of the futures stock held by the investor increases by .01 penny per gallon. Now, since the original investment was $10,000 or translated into gallons, 42,000, the rise in the cost of heating oil by one good American copper penny nets the investor $4,200. Now wait a minute. Can that be true? Yes, according to the way the futures market works. If heating oil purchased in December, 1994, for .49 cents would sell for .59 cents in February, the gross profit for the investor would be 10 times $4,200 or $42,000. This is the magic of futures investing. A small amount of money can become a large amount in a very short time. There are risks, however. Natch! If the value of the fuel oil dropped from .49 to .45 in February, the entire investment would be lost. This is the danger in futures trading. Naturally, the futures trading company doesn't want to lose money for its investors because they would soon be out of business. Their goal is to make money for the investor and for themselves. After hearing all of this, I called the company on their 800 number and requested an information package. They were very helpful and not too pushy. This surprised me. I received the package on November 24, and studied it. I was tempted to buy in. Then on December 1, 1993, I heard a report that the OPEC nations decided to continue producing oil at the current rate. The price of a barrel of crude oil dropped from $21 to $15 the same day. I got the jitters. If crude oil dropped in value, it seemed only reasonable that the price for heating oil would too. For days I wondered whether to make the investment. I received three calls from the futures trading company salesperson. He was nice and didn't pressure me. I told him the $10,000 was a big chunk of change. It was then he told me that I could invest as little as $3000. That sounded tempting to me, but I still wasn't sure. There was no mention of $3000 investments on the talk show. The winter temperatures for most of December were mild. I wondered what to do considering the weather and the OPEC production. I received a few more calls from the salesperson. No pressure or anything, but there was a tinge of impatience in his voice. When all three of our vehicles went down in one week during Christmas break, I knew it was foolish to consider investing even $3000 in heating oil futures. I didn't have a car to drive for over a week and I was considering investing a bundle of cash in heating oil. I decided not to invest. Yet, there are those who do make a living gambling on such commodities. Actually, the odds are much better in the futures market than they are in playing the daily lottery. A few years ago when Cuba experienced two hurricanes in one growing season, the cost of sugar futures went from .05 cents to .95. Those who invested in sugar futures that year made a killing. There are many commodities out there which are staples of our lifestyle, like sugar and heating oil. Some people with spare cash will continue to invest and make money. There is risk. There is excitement. There is the potential of amassing great wealth. There is also the chance of substantial loss. I still am considering an investment some time in the future. Today, I spent $90 bucks to get new wheel bearings for my 15 year old car. Next, I plan to get my car radio fixed. Who knows what valuable pieces of information I am missing because I can't receive any local AM or FM channels?